Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ff2…3595 world 49 markets active 5h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$3
world 38% +$10
politics 11% $0
finance 3% +$2
sports 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +250.7% +217.3% 62% 12% -7.7%
≤30d 30 +68.9% +52.8% 37% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 43 +48.2% +34.1% 37% 5% -9.0%
all 48 +37.9% +24.8% 38% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.8% 6% -9.1%
10% +12.8% 6% -17.8%
15% +1.9% 6% -25.8%
20% -8.1% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage525d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$4 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $79 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $70 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $37 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $15 +$8 +57%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $72 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $41 −$3 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $12 +$1 +7%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $46 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $6 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $55 +$1 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $247 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $247 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $272 −$1 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 14 $231 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Dec 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Dec 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Viktoria Plzen beat Ferencvaros? Mar 04 $6 +$2 +43%
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $43 5h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $43 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 30h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 39h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 39h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 44h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records