Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ff1…13db crypto 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%387W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day122.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$49
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -31.1% -37.6% 39% 32% -27.7%
≤30d 730 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 42% -12.0%
≤90d 730 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 42% -12.0%
all 730 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 42% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 37% -20.4%
15% -32.4% 34% -28.1%
20% -39.1% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses387 / 343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)730 / 731
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day122.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 66¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.19 (match) · 1760 history records