Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4fef…8bb9 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+8%) realized +$145 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +65.1% +49.4% 50% 50% +2.0%
≤30d 2 +65.1% +49.4% 50% 50% +2.0%
≤90d 2 +65.1% +49.4% 50% 50% +2.0%
all 2 +65.1% +49.4% 50% 50% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.4% 50% +2.0%
10% +35.1% 50% -7.7%
15% +22.0% 50% -16.6%
20% +10.1% 50% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$259 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 44¢ $342 $320 −$22 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $552 −$259 -47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $201 +$356 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.97 · official $301.79 · 15 history records