Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fee…645f crypto 1081 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-2%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%748W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 40% -9.0%
≤30d 221 -0.7% -10.1% 75% 40% -9.9%
≤90d 1071 -3.2% -12.4% 69% 33% -11.6%
all 1081 -2.6% -11.9% 69% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 34% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 20% -19.9%
15% -28.0% 12% -27.6%
20% -35.1% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses748 / 333
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1081 / 1081
History coverage90d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1081 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2523 history records