Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4F 0x4fee…c487 crypto 1912 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+2%) realized +$267 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%1082W / 597L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day91.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$516
14 days+$1,103
30 days+$1,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,874
other 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 +7.5% -2.7% 59% 59% +4.9%
≤30d 1636 +11.1% +0.5% 64% 60% +4.2%
≤90d 1679 +10.5% -0.0% 64% 59% +4.1%
all 1679 +10.5% -0.0% 64% 59% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 59% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 52% -5.9%
15% -18.3% 48% -15.0%
20% -26.3% 44% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1082 / 597
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1679 / 1912
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day91.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +83%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +64%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 44m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 10h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.98 · official $7.55 · 3500 history records