Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fed…c7a9 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
other 30% −$2
politics 9% +$9
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 5% $0
culture 3% +$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -10.7%
all 30 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 7% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -8.1%
10% -18.2% 7% -16.9%
15% -26.1% 7% -24.9%
20% -33.3% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage477d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in April? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1 +$2 +167%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? Apr 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Brentford be relegated? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Apr 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $28 $0 +1%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 27 $27 $0 -1%
PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 26 $28 $0 +0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 25 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 21? Mar 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 20 $18 +$9 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $31 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $33 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $23 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $11 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 13d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 88¢ $0 178d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 343d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 343d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $2 343d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $5 361d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $5 381d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records