Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fec…b8ed other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,383 (-36%) realized −$8,402 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%52W / 89L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$382
14 days+$286
30 days−$1,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$8,886
sports 5% +$579
world 1% −$99
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +7.9% -2.4% 38% 38% +19.7%
≤30d 105 +2.4% -7.4% 39% 39% -28.7%
≤90d 141 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% -42.3%
all 141 -8.4% -17.1% 37% 37% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 37% -42.3%
10% -25.1% 35% -47.8%
15% -32.3% 35% -52.9%
20% -38.9% 34% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$181 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$8,402
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses52 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage51d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 52¢ 86¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$35 +136%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +139%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$50 +982%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$38 +74%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +226%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3 +$24 +786%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$5 +165%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.33 · official $49.33 (match) · 282 history records