Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4fea…d383 other 568 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,698 (+13%) realized +$14,552 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%508W / 47L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 178d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$359
other 27% +$244
politics 16% +$1,244
crypto 13% +$31
sports 10% −$106
tech 1% −$45
finance 0% +$144
economics 0% +$17
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.6% -12.8% 87% 7% -7.8%
≤30d 45 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 11% -7.8%
≤90d 198 -2.9% -12.2% 92% 5% -8.3%
all 555 +2.7% -7.1% 92% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 8% -8.1%
10% -15.9% 3% -16.9%
15% -24.1% 3% -24.9%
20% -31.5% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$40 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$2,474
Realized+$14,552
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses508 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)555 / 568
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$207
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US congress stock trading ban before 2027? No 77¢ 90¢ $833 $977 +$144 (+17%)
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $456 $480 +$24 (+5%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $184 $190 +$5 (+3%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $178 $171 −$7 (-4%)
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $99 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-98%)
Obama divorce before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 27 $371 +$6 +2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 27 $174 +$11 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 27 $186 +$4 +2%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 27 $192 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $1,010 +$33 +3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $9,255 +$54 +1%
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 27 $1,608 +$29 +2%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 27 $1,801 +$56 +3%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 27 $5,604 +$514 +9%
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 25 $302 +$16 +5%
Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $892 −$325 -36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 19 $1,164 +$47 +4%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 15 $276 +$17 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $488 −$44 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $633 −$18 -3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $283 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 08 $0 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $206 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $514 +$14 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $195 +$5 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $187 +$13 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $393 +$6 +2%
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 31 $1,145 +$17 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $731 +$20 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $164 +$12 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $285 +$15 +5%
Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027? May 18 $183 +$7 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $197 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $377 33m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $93 1h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $185 1h
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $190 1h
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $193 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $196 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 81¢ $1,266 1h
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $281 1h
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $6,118 1h
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $0 13h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $178 38h
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $196 2d
Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $180 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $552 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $194 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $192 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $188 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $188 5d
Obama divorce before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,473.73 · official $2,473.73 (match) · 3500 history records