Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe8…33dc other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-54%) realized −$105 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$79
culture 23% −$45
world 14% −$10
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-60.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -88.9% -90.0% 0% 0% -92.6%
≤30d 3 -88.9% -90.0% 0% 0% -92.6%
≤90d 17 -93.0% -93.7% 0% 0% -96.7%
all 33 -56.7% -60.8% 18% 18% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.8% 18% -54.2%
10% -64.6% 15% -58.6%
15% -68.0% 15% -62.6%
20% -71.1% 6% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage168d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-67%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-94%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? May 06 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50? Apr 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will Emily Flippen win Survivor Season 50? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick win Survivor Season 50? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kevin O'Leary be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 28 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Sorry Baby be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Ac Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 18 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 14 $20 −$13 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 14 $4 +$3 +68%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jan 07 $3 +$1 +37%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 06 $2 $0 +15%
Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 05 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 05 $28 −$13 -45%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $8 +$12 +153%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Jan 01 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 40d
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 61d
Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 61d
Will Emily Flippen win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 66d
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 66d
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 68d
Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 68d
Will Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 68d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 124d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 127d
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 15¢ $5 127d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 127d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 138d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 138d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 139d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 149d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 149d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 149d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 149d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 152d
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 152d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 152d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 160d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 160d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.34 · official $3.34 (match) · 79 history records