Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fe7…5ab1
other · 40 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$23 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
BC Dubai vs. Buducnost May 25 $63 −$17 -27%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Hamilton? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? May 25 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Tgr Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$3
politics 33% $0
sports 20% −$16
economics 8% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $4 2h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $4 2h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $4 3h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.0% -1.4% 50% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 6 -17.8% -25.7% 33% 33% -25.9%
≤90d 6 -17.8% -25.7% 33% 33% -25.9%
all 6 -17.8% -25.7% 33% 33% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 33% -25.9%
10% -32.8% 33% -33.0%
15% -39.3% 17% -39.5%
20% -45.2% 17% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.61 · official $6.40 (match) · 95 history records