Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fe4…c4d8
crypto · 36 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$21
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 6 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 51¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$19
other 18% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -37.4% -43.4% 30% 30% -35.2%
≤30d 30 -37.4% -43.4% 30% 30% -35.2%
≤90d 30 -37.4% -43.4% 30% 30% -35.2%
all 30 -37.4% -43.4% 30% 30% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 30% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 30% -41.4%
15% -53.7% 30% -47.1%
20% -58.3% 23% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.57 · official $20.67 (match) · 51 history records