Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe3…1038 crypto 240 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-9%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%158W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$31
sports 6% −$2
world 5% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -6.8% -15.7% 70% 60% -15.2%
≤30d 240 -11.2% -19.7% 66% 53% -18.7%
≤90d 240 -11.2% -19.7% 66% 53% -18.7%
all 240 -11.2% -19.7% 66% 53% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 53% -18.7%
10% -27.4% 39% -26.5%
15% -34.4% 16% -33.6%
20% -40.8% 3% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses158 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Aurora 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 545 history records