Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4F 0x4fe2…87c5 crypto 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 316d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,917 (+2%) realized +$2,258 · open +$3,659
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate83%325W / 68L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$625per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$45,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 317d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$28,159
economics 17% +$13,938
tech 10% +$1,385
other 9% −$3,165
world 6% −$1,088
finance 5% −$132
politics 2% −$141
sports 2% −$1,163
culture 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -69.3% -72.2% 29% 0% -71.3%
≤30d 20 -51.9% -56.5% 45% 0% -66.3%
≤90d 127 -16.0% -24.0% 73% 20% -19.8%
all 393 +10.8% +0.3% 83% 23% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 23% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 12% -7.5%
15% -18.1% 9% -16.4%
20% -26.1% 6% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$697) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$414 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$45,205
Realized+$2,258
Unrealized+$3,659
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses325 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions47
Markets (closed)393 / 430
History coverage317d ⚠
Avg bet$625
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US recession by end of 2026? No 72¢ 87¢ $7,222 $8,704 +$1,482 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $6,943 $6,978 +$34 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,922 $3,936 +$14 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 88¢ $1,906 $2,330 +$424 (+22%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $2,222 $1,944 −$278 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $1,500 $1,725 +$226 (+15%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 74¢ $1,594 $1,264 −$330 (-21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,136 $1,143 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 90¢ $830 $1,044 +$214 (+26%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 77¢ 81¢ $964 $1,019 +$55 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $963 $992 +$29 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $945 $961 +$17 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $853 $878 +$25 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $824 $824 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $669 $750 +$81 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 94¢ $403 $690 +$287 (+71%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 72¢ 99¢ $483 $663 +$180 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 100¢ $296 $639 +$343 (+116%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $625 $628 +$3 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 79¢ 100¢ $463 $585 +$122 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $543 $559 +$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $522 $519 −$3 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 88¢ $344 $485 +$141 (+41%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $434 $437 +$3 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $382 $392 +$10 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 18 $23 −$20 -88%
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in July? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.2 in July? Jun 18 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Jun 18 $496 −$496 -100%
XRP all time high before October? Jun 18 $268 −$267 -100%
XRP all time high before 2026? Jun 18 $3,059 −$3,059 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in July? Jun 18 $291 −$291 -100%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 18 $16 −$48 -294%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Jun 18 $163 −$163 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jun 18 $442 −$1,137 -257%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 13 $279 +$7 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $526 +$40 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 13 $546 +$22 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 13 $836 +$32 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso Jun 02 $155 +$13 +9%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 02 $280 +$14 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $368 +$28 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 02 $623 +$29 +5%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $2,210 −$2,210 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $350 +$18 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $1,238 −$178 -14%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 16 $237 +$49 +20%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? May 02 $65 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 02 $278 +$85 +30%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? May 02 $339 +$11 +3%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? May 02 $388 +$18 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 02 $226 +$40 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $551 +$87 +16%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? May 02 $272 +$14 +5%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 02 $272 +$14 +5%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 02 $355 +$11 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? May 02 $313 +$55 +18%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April? May 02 $359 +$19 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 02 $365 +$20 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 02 $368 +$18 +5%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of April? May 02 $378 +$8 +2%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $389 +$7 +2%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 02 $385 +$11 +3%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 02 $381 +$15 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $517 +$51 +10%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $552 +$16 +3%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? May 02 $457 +$202 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $663 +$21 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 02 $666 +$18 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $709 +$57 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 02 $745 +$27 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 02 $684 +$94 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 02 $1,033 +$36 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 02 $1,339 +$35 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 02 $5,076 +$185 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 95¢ $95 58m
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $134 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 95¢ $177 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $377 41h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $49 41h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $100 41h
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $320 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 96¢ $365 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $351 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 95¢ $82 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $1,688 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $259 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $138 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2,426 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $522 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $572 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,454 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $688 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $2,796 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $1,858 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $544 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $946 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $442 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 89¢ $777 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $214 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 94¢ $270 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $0 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,138 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,205.14 · official $45,205.14 (match) · 3500 history records