Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe1…9f07 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$20
other 1% −$8
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +14.1% +3.2% 74% 71% -5.4%
≤30d 31 +14.1% +3.2% 74% 71% -5.4%
≤90d 70 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 54% -11.8%
all 70 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 54% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 54% -11.8%
10% -19.7% 51% -20.3%
15% -27.5% 41% -28.0%
20% -34.6% 33% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage42d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$12 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $11 +$38 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 15 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 15 $9 +$15 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 15 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 14 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 14 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 14 $41 −$23 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records