Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fdf…4452
world · 123 markets active 3d ago
0.0score
+$2,239 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,286 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$37
Realized+$2,286
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses81 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
Avg bet$402
Trades / day103.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$105
14 days+$256
30 days+$2,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 32¢ $51 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $488 +$23 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 05 $264 −$34 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 05 $144 −$14 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $568 +$125 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 05 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $135 +$6 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $1,013 −$39 -4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $470 +$16 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $619 +$19 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $512 +$21 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $233 −$19 -8%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $161 −$33 -20%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1,077 +$159 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $45 +$14 +32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $372 +$5 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 29 $650 −$104 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $207 +$72 +35%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3,798 +$494 +13%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $511 −$16 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $1,468 +$100 +7%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 28 $3,198 +$88 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $35 +$5 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $168 +$12 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $676 −$21 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $397 +$12 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $96 −$40 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $1,413 −$58 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $798 +$26 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $577 +$48 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $132 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,262 +$59 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 27 $128 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 27 $92 +$12 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $244 −$62 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 26 $268 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $123 +$8 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $291 +$37 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $234 +$10 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $90 +$2 +2%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 26 $150 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $382 +$6 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 26 $931 +$12 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $98 +$8 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $99 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 25 $226 +$789 +349%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $176 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$910
crypto 23% +$546
tech 6% +$79
finance 6% +$729
other 4% −$31
politics 3% +$15
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $60 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 3d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $63 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $77 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 37¢ $141 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $41 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 32¢ $160 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 25¢ $100 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 25¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 20¢ $44 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 20¢ $34 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 20¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 28¢ $140 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 34¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 34¢ $97 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 34¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 33% -3.5%
≤30d 117 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 17% -5.3%
≤90d 120 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 17% -5.3%
all 120 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 17% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover103.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 17% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 3% -14.4%
15% -22.8% 1% -22.7%
20% -30.4% 1% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.28 · official $37.28 (match) · 3500 history records