Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fde…8593 world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$6
other 18% +$1
crypto 6% −$4
politics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 36% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 36% 0% -8.1%
all 36 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -8.9%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage468d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $38 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 28 $9 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 27 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 28 $1 $0 +21%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $11 $0 +4%
Will St. John's win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bronny score a point against the Celtics? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 26m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $47 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $42 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $6 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $44 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 41h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $44 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $44 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $40 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $6 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $16 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $44 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $44 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $23 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $18 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $38 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $42 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $42 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records