Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fdc…d5b2 crypto 1077 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%763W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day199.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$355
14 days−$702
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$672
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 -4.9% -14.0% 44% 42% -16.5%
≤30d 1077 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 1077 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 33% -13.8%
all 1077 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 33% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 19% -22.0%
15% -27.1% 16% -29.6%
20% -34.2% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses763 / 314
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1077 / 1077
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day199.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1077 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$67 +443%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$3 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$21 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$17 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records