Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fdc…dfab other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-4%) realized −$123 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%35W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$133
14 days−$126
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$123
sports 13% +$4
crypto 7% −$36
weather 3% −$21
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -11.0% -19.5% 24% 24% -16.8%
≤30d 130 -17.3% -25.2% 27% 27% -18.2%
≤90d 130 -17.3% -25.2% 27% 27% -18.2%
all 130 -17.3% -25.2% 27% 27% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 27% -18.2%
10% -32.4% 25% -26.0%
15% -38.9% 25% -33.2%
20% -44.9% 22% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses35 / 95
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)130 / 134
History coverage26d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $145 $147 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $96 $114 +$18 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $97 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 32¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$16 +321%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$25 +504%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$53 +53%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $105 −$21 -20%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $15 −$2 -11%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $510 −$76 -15%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 23 $35 −$13 -37%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$50 +504%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$29 +590%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $100 −$10 -10%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$22 +63%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$21 +213%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -60%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 31¢ $18 6h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 12¢ $84 6h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 23¢ $13 6h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $3 7h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $203 7h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 7¢ $22 7h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $232 7h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 7h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $5 8h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $400 8h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 10¢ $30 8h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 14¢ $80 8h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $100 8h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.74 · official $375.74 (match) · 236 history records