Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4fdb…f443 world 49 markets active 21h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$16
sports 21% −$10
economics 17% −$1
other 9% −$1
finance 3% +$1
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 44 +0.3% -9.2% 52% 0% -9.0%
all 48 +2.3% -7.5% 52% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.3% 4% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage529d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $51 +$3 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $49 −$5 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $47 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $70 +$4 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -23%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $65 +$6 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $66 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $82 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $30 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $49 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $308 +$2 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $308 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $47 +$1 +2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $308 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $4 $0 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31? Mar 20 $0 $0 +96%
Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech Feb 16 $25 −$25 -100%
UC Riverside vs. UC Davis Feb 14 $12 +$12 +100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $17 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $28 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $38 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $51 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $12 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records