Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fd2…943b other 493 markets active 13h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$554 (-14%) realized −$363 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%133W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$82
14 days−$55
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$121
world 36% −$350
crypto 13% −$48
politics 9% −$96
sports 3% +$34
culture 1% −$20
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.8% -0.7% 19% 19% -44.7%
≤30d 35 +4.1% -5.9% 43% 43% -19.0%
≤90d 47 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 43% -18.4%
all 480 -14.0% -22.2% 28% 26% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 26% -21.1%
10% -29.6% 23% -28.7%
15% -36.4% 20% -35.5%
20% -42.6% 17% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses133 / 347
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)480 / 493
History coverage368d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 65¢ 34¢ $65 $33 −$32 (-49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 16¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-74%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 40¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 36¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$53 +1035%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $26 +$17 +68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $15 +$11 +77%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $5 +$3 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $5 +$2 +42%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 31 $40 +$17 +43%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $10 +$3 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? May 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $5 +$1 +27%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 09 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-22? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 6¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $5 2d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 59¢ $8 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 27¢ $5 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $5 5d
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 5d
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 65¢ $5 5d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.74 · official $81.74 (match) · 1186 history records