Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fd1…43c8 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-0%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%14W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$72
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$23
politics 29% −$28
sports 18% −$67
crypto 10% −$10
culture 3% −$7
world 3% −$3
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.5% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 72 -2.0% -11.3% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 151 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 0% -10.1%
all 163 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses14 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage100d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $279 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $28 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $735 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $620 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $128 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $31 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $139 −$2 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 07 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $150 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 05 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $40 −$1 -2%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $48 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $270 −$3 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $320 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 54m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $33 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $26 7h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $26 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $32 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $33 22h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $34 23h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $34 27h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $30 27h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $30 32h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $28 32h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $28 36h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $25 37h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $26 45h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $29 45h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $38 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $17 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.05 · official $25.05 (match) · 740 history records