Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fcc…5f1b crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$316 (-3%) realized +$334 · open −$650
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%25W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day163.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$635
crypto 37% −$595
weather 5% +$33
world 4% −$149
sports 2% −$4
tech 0% −$9
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +4.2% -5.7% 39% 39% -21.3%
≤30d 64 +4.2% -5.7% 39% 39% -21.3%
≤90d 64 +4.2% -5.7% 39% 39% -21.3%
all 64 +4.2% -5.7% 39% 39% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 39% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 38% -28.8%
15% -23.0% 30% -35.7%
20% -30.5% 28% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$66 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,320
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$650
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)64 / 87
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day163.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $2,000 $1,919 −$81 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,500 $1,536 +$36 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? No 56¢ 100¢ $126 $225 +$99 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? No 81¢ 88¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? No 65¢ 58¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? No 75¢ 69¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $633 $5 −$628 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $175 −$175 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 15 $71 −$7 -9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 −$130 -96%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$35 +82%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $404 +$60 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$123 +582%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$44 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $533 +$481 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$54 +641%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $109 +$31 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$89 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20 Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$42 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $114 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $450 +$120 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $109 +$34 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 5h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 24¢ $64 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 9¢ $5 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 2¢ $1 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 3¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 45¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $130 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 8h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $123 8h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 60¢ $36 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 8h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 25¢ $5 8h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 34¢ $5 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $202 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $404 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,542 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2,038 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $81 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,320.14 · official $4,320.22 (match) · 237 history records