Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4fcc…25e1 sports 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,319 (-7%) realized −$2,386 · open +$67
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%121W / 92L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$149
14 days+$149
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,696
other 2% −$305
crypto 1% −$196
economics 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.6% +15.4% 100% 100% +12.8%
≤30d 2 +27.6% +15.4% 100% 100% +12.8%
≤90d 2 +27.6% +15.4% 100% 100% +12.8%
all 213 -11.9% -20.3% 57% 55% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 55% -15.1%
10% -27.9% 46% -23.3%
15% -34.9% 34% -30.7%
20% -41.2% 23% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$126 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$2,386
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses121 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage220d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $503 +$117 +23%
Will Solana reach $160 in January? Jan 13 $202 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) Jan 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Jan 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets Jan 06 $101 +$29 +28%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jan 06 $101 +$29 +28%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 05 $200 +$99 +49%
Thunder vs. Suns Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Nets Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jan 04 $102 +$38 +37%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jan 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 03 $100 +$19 +19%
Thunder vs. Warriors Jan 03 $100 +$33 +33%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Jan 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 02 $162 +$138 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jan 01 $96 −$96 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 31 $62 +$34 +54%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 31 $46 +$16 +35%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Dec 30 $37 +$9 +25%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $31 +$6 +20%
Suns vs. Wizards Dec 30 $28 +$2 +9%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 30 $187 −$160 -86%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 29 $140 −$58 -41%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $88 +$18 +20%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 29 $204 −$204 -100%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 28 $16 −$1 -8%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Dec 28 $10 +$10 +96%
Jazz vs. Spurs Dec 28 $100 +$100 +100%
Nuggets vs. Magic Dec 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 26 $50 +$50 +100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 26 $65 +$35 +54%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup? Dec 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Cup? Dec 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Magic vs. Trail Blazers Dec 24 $100 +$100 +100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Dec 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Dec 24 $130 −$130 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Dec 23 $53 +$57 +108%
Pacers vs. Celtics Dec 23 $120 +$80 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $50 −$44 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 21? Dec 22 $51 +$49 +96%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Dec 21 $99 +$51 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Dec 21 $102 +$48 +47%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $200 +$108 +54%
Pistons vs. Mavericks Dec 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Dec 18 $100 +$52 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $101 25h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 7d
Will Solana reach $160 in January? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 157d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) BUY FaZe 67¢ $104 158d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) BUY FaZe 67¢ $2 158d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) BUY FaZe 67¢ $1 158d
Will Solana reach $160 in January? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 159d
Will Solana reach $160 in January? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 159d
Will Solana reach $160 in January? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 159d
Oregon vs. Indiana BUY Oregon 39¢ $100 161d
Mavericks vs. Kings BUY Kings 60¢ $102 164d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 78¢ $101 165d
Suns vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $97 165d
Suns vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $5 165d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 67¢ $200 166d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 77¢ $100 166d
Nuggets vs. Nets BUY Nuggets 58¢ $100 166d
Rockets vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 73¢ $47 167d
Rockets vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 73¢ $18 167d
Rockets vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 73¢ $36 167d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $100 167d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 84¢ $100 168d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 57¢ $100 168d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Thunder 75¢ $100 168d
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders BUY Oregon 54¢ $162 170d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $96 170d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 65¢ $35 171d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 65¢ $28 171d
76ers vs. Grizzlies SELL 76ers 100¢ $63 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.58 · official $166.58 (match) · 519 history records