Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fcb…e4c3
crypto · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$20 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage130d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 1 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$2 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $10 +$2 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $18 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $7 +$1 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $5 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $53 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $6 −$1 -17%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz May 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 24 $8 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $12 +$2 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 22 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $4 $0 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $8 −$1 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 20 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 20 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 19 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% +$60
world 28% −$9
crypto 28% −$60
sports 6% −$4
politics 6% −$7
finance 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 52¢ $9 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $6 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 88¢ $7 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? SELL No 74¢ $6 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 65¢ $5 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $5 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 77¢ $7 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $5 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 19d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 66¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 25% -14.6%
≤30d 67 -3.1% -12.4% 48% 34% -11.1%
≤90d 73 -4.1% -13.2% 45% 32% -12.4%
all 74 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 32% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 32% -12.3%
10% -20.6% 22% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 18% -28.4%
20% -35.3% 16% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.08 · official $5.08 (match) · 210 history records