Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4fca…7403 crypto 520 markets active 0h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%259W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$34
14 days+$43
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$44
other 21% −$43
world 1% −$9
sports 1% +$2
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 +6.2% -3.9% 50% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 514 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 50% -3.3%
≤90d 515 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 50% -9.1%
all 520 +5.6% -4.4% 50% 50% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 50% -10.6%
10% -13.6% 50% -19.2%
15% -21.9% 50% -27.0%
20% -29.6% 50% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses259 / 261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 520
History coverage369d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions (251 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 797 history records