Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fca…9355 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$909 (-36%) realized −$739 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$790
crypto 16% $0
sports 5% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-82.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -80.8% -82.6% 12% 12% -65.8%
≤30d 8 -80.8% -82.6% 12% 12% -65.8%
≤90d 8 -80.8% -82.6% 12% 12% -65.8%
all 8 -80.8% -82.6% 12% 12% -65.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.6% 12% -65.8%
10% -84.3% 12% -69.1%
15% -85.8% 12% -72.1%
20% -87.2% 12% -74.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$129 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$739
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $192 $22 −$170 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $381 −$373 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $127 −$124 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $126 −$123 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $293 +$158 +54%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $119 −$116 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.60 · official $21.60 (match) · 14 history records