Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fca…1938
sports · 162 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$701 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$694 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$293
Realized−$694
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses97 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 162
History coverage32d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$586
14 days−$238
30 days−$995
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $403 +$29 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 +$94 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $303 +$9 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $322 +$104 +32%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 07 $101 +$29 +28%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 07 $101 +$36 +36%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 −$58 -57%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $205 −$205 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 −$33 -32%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$71 +70%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$235 +230%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$307 +300%
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$148 +146%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$86 +84%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $102 −$13 -13%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Angola vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $204 −$1 -1%
Angola vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 +$146 +143%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $102 +$184 +180%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $102 +$314 +307%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 +$314 +307%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$895
other 29% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $125 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $169 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $389 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,052 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1,001 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $302 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $43 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $196 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 26h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 29h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $102 29h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 70¢ $312 46h
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $322 2d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Bolivia 76¢ $101 2d
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $0 5d
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $130 5d
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $101 5d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 34% -18.8%
≤30d 143 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 31% -12.8%
≤90d 159 -7.0% -15.9% 61% 33% -11.6%
all 159 -7.0% -15.9% 61% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 33% -11.6%
10% -23.9% 24% -20.1%
15% -31.3% 16% -27.8%
20% -38.0% 13% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.83 · official $292.83 (match) · 419 history records