Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fca…f72e
other · 249 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$33,414 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34,098 · open −$808
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,381
Realized+$34,098
Unrealized−$808
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses91 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions22
Markets (closed)222 / 249
History coverage344d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit16%
Chart Positions 22 History 222 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days+$182
14 days+$356
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 29¢ $1,713 $1,345 −$368 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $720 $660 −$60 (-8%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $648 $642 −$6 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $513 $498 −$15 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $468 −$32 (-6%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $432 $328 −$104 (-24%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $214 $260 +$46 (+21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $270 $225 −$45 (-17%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $255 $180 −$74 (-29%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $160 $173 +$13 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $240 $170 −$70 (-29%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $107 $128 +$20 (+19%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $146 $102 −$43 (-30%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $78 $61 −$17 (-22%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $32 −$12 (-28%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $821 −$44 -5%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $110 −$21 -20%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $38 +$1 +4%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $105 −$7 -7%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $637 −$7 -1%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $70 −$65 -93%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $613 −$29 -5%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$2 -3%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $65 −$3 -4%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $54 +$171 +314%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$2 +72%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$34 -34%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $221 +$15 +7%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $738 +$172 +23%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $411 −$120 -29%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $494 +$106 +21%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $29 −$17 -60%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $32 −$22 -68%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $514 +$86 +17%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $39 +$21 +54%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $290 +$165 +57%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10,975 −$12 -0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 12 $328 −$47 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $685 +$37 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $2,148 −$12 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 07 $352 −$2 -1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $59 −$2 -4%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $70 −$50 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $9 −$8 -83%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $206 −$170 -83%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $229 −$229 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $124 −$98 -79%
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 05 $495 −$2 -0%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 05 $90 −$80 -89%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $469 −$164 -35%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $656 −$656 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $180 −$158 -88%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 01 $543 +$2 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 30 $98 −$32 -33%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 30 $37 −$27 -73%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,715 −$164 -10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,333 +$229 +17%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $372 +$628 +169%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $332 +$726 +219%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% +$34,115
politics 11% +$80
world 2% −$95
crypto 1% −$362
sports 1% −$268
culture 0% −$81
economics 0% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 16m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 46m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 47m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $388 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $388 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $25 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 2h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 2h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $86 2h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 4h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $103 4h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 4h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 6h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 37¢ $51 6h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $208 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +88.2% +70.3% 35% 25% -5.8%
≤30d 25 +67.0% +51.1% 36% 28% -8.7%
≤90d 97 +27.1% +15.0% 31% 26% -6.3%
all 222 +9.7% -0.7% 41% 34% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 34% +13.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 27% +2.6%
15% -18.9% 21% -7.3%
20% -26.8% 18% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,381.26 · official $5,406.26 (match) · 3500 history records