Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4F 0x4fca…2e16 crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57,798 (-95%) realized −$57,572 · open −$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%109W / 284L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,158
7 days−$18,158
14 days−$18,158
30 days−$18,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$16,500
sports 5% +$989
world 1% −$134
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -29.9% -36.6% 22% 22% -54.4%
≤30d 233 -29.9% -36.5% 22% 22% -54.7%
≤90d 299 -28.3% -35.2% 23% 23% -50.2%
all 393 -17.6% -25.5% 28% 28% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 28% -44.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 27% -50.1%
15% -39.1% 26% -54.9%
20% -45.1% 26% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$194 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$960
Realized−$57,572
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses109 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions5
Markets (closed)393 / 266
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$229
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $465 $458 −$8 (-2%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 25¢ 60¢ $125 $302 +$178 (+142%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season BESTIA 28¢ 39¢ $140 $195 +$55 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $323 $4 −$318 (-99%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Division One 52¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$118 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $177 −$44 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $183 +$844 +460%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $224 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $211 +$68 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $250 −$125 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $130 +$99 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $134 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $203 6m
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 28¢ $57 10m
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 28¢ $68 10m
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 28¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $38 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 10m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 79¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 16m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 25¢ $31 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $959.62 · official $926.12 · 3500 history records