trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 50% | 50% | +43.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 50% | 50% | +43.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -67.0% | -70.1% | 17% | 17% | -40.4% |
| all | 28 | +56.4% | +41.5% | 43% | 39% | +47.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +41.5% | 39% | +47.4% |
| 10% | +27.9% | 36% | +33.3% |
| 15% | +15.6% | 29% | +20.4% |
| 20% | +4.3% | 29% | +8.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $101 | $83 | −$17 (-17%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 14¢ | $97 | $72 | −$24 (-25%) |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | $41 | $34 | −$7 (-17%) |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $56 | +$55 | +98% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $14 | −$14 | -98% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 09 | $79 | −$40 | -51% |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Apr 08 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Apr 07 | $67 | −$67 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 31 | $35 | −$14 | -39% |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | Jan 31 | $16 | −$3 | -18% |
| Will NewJeans perform again in 2025? | Nov 27 | $286 | −$217 | -76% |
| Will the government shutdown end November 14? | Nov 13 | $2 | +$9 | +489% |
| Will the government shutdown end November 13? | Nov 13 | $26 | +$210 | +794% |
| Will the government shutdown end November 12? | Nov 13 | $76 | −$3 | -3% |
| Fed rate cut in 2025? | Sep 30 | $180 | +$42 | +24% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 13 | $200 | +$7 | +3% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$24 | +24% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 12 | $50 | +$6 | +12% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko | Jun 05 | $152 | −$131 | -86% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 05 | $101 | −$95 | -94% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $134 | −$134 | -100% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 05 | $136 | −$136 | -100% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 04 | $108 | +$486 | +450% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | Jun 04 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? | Jun 04 | $7,073 | +$5,070 | +72% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 03 | $296 | −$80 | -27% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Ko | Jun 03 | $151 | +$1,051 | +696% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect | Jun 03 | $97 | −$96 | -99% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 03 | $90 | +$104 | +116% |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? | Mar 20 | $200 | +$123 | +62% |