Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fc8…f86d
other · 74 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$25 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$136
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)55 / 74
History coverage83d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit24%
Chart Positions 19 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$11
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 61¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 54¢ 26¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$45 +841%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 18 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$15 +145%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$6 +61%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$20 +201%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 +$32 +159%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 +$16 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$36
crypto 18% +$5
sports 4% −$16
politics 3% +$5
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 35h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.4% +9.8% 60% 60% +22.0%
≤30d 26 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 55 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 45% -4.2%
all 55 +9.0% -1.4% 47% 45% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 45% -4.2%
10% -10.8% 42% -13.4%
15% -19.4% 42% -21.8%
20% -27.3% 38% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.19 · official $136.19 (match) · 160 history records