Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4fc7…f7de sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,045 (-19%) realized −$2,009 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%20W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,093
7 days−$2,473
14 days−$2,506
30 days−$2,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,802
other 24% −$335
crypto 4% −$57
world 3% −$334
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -42.4% -47.9% 24% 24% -46.1%
≤30d 70 -23.8% -31.1% 29% 29% -32.8%
≤90d 72 -25.2% -32.3% 28% 28% -33.3%
all 72 -25.2% -32.3% 28% 28% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 28% -33.3%
10% -38.8% 28% -39.6%
15% -44.7% 26% -45.5%
20% -50.1% 25% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$97 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized−$2,009
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses20 / 52
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage53d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $634 $646 +$12 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $84 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $328 −$193 -59%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $149 −$53 -36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$2 -12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$111 +55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $109 −$68 -63%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $302 +$177 +59%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $603 −$103 -17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $194 −$194 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $144 +$50 +35%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $97 +$47 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $133 +$284 +213%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $153 −$20 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $110 +$86 +78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $244 −$134 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $488 −$488 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $204 +$202 +99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $119 +$86 +72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $78 +$72 +92%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $116 −$12 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $285 −$285 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $68 +$68 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$41 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$26 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$30 +560%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$42 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $86 4m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $86 32m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $48 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $95 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $69 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $96 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $96 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $149 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $14 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $297 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $313 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $202 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $652 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 13¢ $41 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 17¢ $41 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 43¢ $109 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $183 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $188 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $302 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $302 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $194 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $194 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $144 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $97 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.41 · official $729.41 (match) · 198 history records