Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fc5…bc67 crypto 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%188W / 183L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$21
14 days−$17
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 47% -14.8%
≤30d 371 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 50% -9.1%
≤90d 371 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 50% -9.1%
all 371 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 50% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 50% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 50% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 50% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses188 / 183
Open positions0
Markets (closed)371 / 371
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 371 Trades
no open positions (177 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 608 history records