Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fc1…8360 crypto 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (778 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32,299 (-145%) realized −$30,792 · open −$1,507
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%61W / 494L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day778.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$1,588
world 34% −$1,023
other 2% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (778 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 -55.5% -59.8% 11% 10% -63.5%
≤30d 555 -55.5% -59.8% 11% 10% -63.5%
≤90d 555 -55.5% -59.8% 11% 10% -63.5%
all 555 -55.5% -59.8% 11% 10% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover778.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.8% 10% -63.5%
10% ← realistic here -63.6% 8% -67.0%
15% -67.1% 8% -70.1%
20% -70.4% 7% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$73 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$30,792
Unrealized−$1,507
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses61 / 494
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)555 / 146
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$152
Trades / day778.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $58 $42 −$15 (-26%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $88 $38 −$49 (-56%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $1,144 $25 −$1,119 (-98%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-51%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $314 $6 −$308 (-98%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 27 ET? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on September 16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Jun 17 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during events Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17? Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$63 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Jun 17 $159 −$146 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$37 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$60 +1336%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Starmer say "China" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$18 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 26 ET? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.78 · official $121.78 (match) · 3500 history records