Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4fc1…ec92 sports 331 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,185 (+14%) realized +$33,101 · open +$1,084
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate59%161W / 114L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$24,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$4,269
world 13% +$343
other 12% −$1,440
politics 8% +$1,087
economics 1% −$455
finance 0% +$9
crypto 0% +$219
tech 0% +$12
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -15.4% -23.5% 59% 18% -12.3%
≤30d 63 +0.0% -9.5% 71% 24% -6.9%
≤90d 109 -6.4% -15.3% 68% 17% -23.1%
all 275 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 19% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 19% -8.3%
10% -20.7% 12% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 9% -25.1%
20% -35.4% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$220 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$24,402
Realized+$33,101
Unrealized+$1,084
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses161 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions56
Markets (closed)275 / 331
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$757
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 83¢ $1,002 $1,110 +$107 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $1,069 $1,100 +$31 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 86¢ $948 $1,073 +$125 (+13%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 57¢ 94¢ $598 $983 +$385 (+64%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $834 $860 +$26 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $808 $811 +$3 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $748 $796 +$48 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $798 $772 −$26 (-3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $745 $749 +$4 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $667 $720 +$53 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 74¢ 62¢ $832 $695 −$137 (-16%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 88¢ $700 $690 −$10 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $627 $648 +$21 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $604 $643 +$39 (+6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 86¢ $643 $631 −$12 (-2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $600 $612 +$12 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $462 $595 +$133 (+29%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $528 $579 +$52 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $578 $577 −$1 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $549 $558 +$9 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $555 $548 −$7 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $446 $546 +$100 (+22%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $510 $519 +$8 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $508 $518 +$10 (+2%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $478 $495 +$17 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $709 +$141 +20%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $426 +$174 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $912 −$414 -45%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $258 −$231 -90%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $299 −$98 -33%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $157 −$116 -74%
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? Jun 19 $157 +$4 +3%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,701 +$59 +4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $580 +$50 +9%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $229 −$65 -29%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $179 +$71 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,447 +$117 +3%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $205 +$15 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $583 +$17 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $81 −$46 -57%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 16 $23 −$14 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $834 −$43 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,048 +$152 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $454 +$42 +9%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $242 +$7 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $609 +$7 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $418 +$582 +139%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $946 +$115 +12%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $349 +$10 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $758 +$8 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $255 +$5 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $650 −$14 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $584 +$105 +18%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $758 +$90 +12%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 09 $490 +$14 +3%
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $165 +$4 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,771 −$94 -5%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $253 +$137 +54%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $707 +$8 +1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $83 +$4 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $612 +$23 +4%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $251 +$7 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $795 +$11 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $441 +$49 +11%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $161 +$19 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $581 +$20 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 01 $387 +$4 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $181 −$44 -24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $501 +$89 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $270 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $208 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $230 1h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $198 6h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $408 6h
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 7h
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $229 20h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $10 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 21h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $10 21h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $11 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 22h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 22h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $118 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $54 28h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $0 29h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $0 29h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $0 29h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 91¢ $15 29h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $808 29h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $167 30h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $127 30h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $0 33h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $1 33h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $0 33h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $0 33h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $0 33h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $0 33h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 BUY No 90¢ $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,402.44 · official $24,402.19 (match) · 3500 history records