Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fc1…3b05
crypto · 99 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses27 / 70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Up 56¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Down 33¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? No 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 22? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 13? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 20? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +397%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$5 +228%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$4 +422%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 73,800 on May 29, 12PM ET? May 29 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 27 $2 −$2 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 27 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 +$10 +189%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 78% −$4
weather 22% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 56¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 33¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 100¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 0¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 37¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $17 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $16 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 54¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL No 54¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 48¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 50¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 23% -12.8%
≤30d 69 -7.8% -16.6% 32% 26% -0.9%
≤90d 97 -21.5% -29.0% 28% 23% -14.4%
all 97 -21.5% -29.0% 28% 23% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 23% -14.4%
10% -35.8% 20% -22.6%
15% -42.0% 20% -30.1%
20% -47.7% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.76 · official $2.76 (match) · 184 history records