Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fc1…9423 politics 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$98 (-1%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$40
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$21
economics 13% −$2
other 5% −$104
crypto 2% +$13
sports 0% +$21
tech 0% −$15
world 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 5 -32.7% -39.1% 0% 0% -20.6%
≤90d 12 -11.7% -20.1% 25% 17% -11.9%
all 48 -33.9% -40.2% 17% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 8% -10.2%
10% -46.0% 8% -18.8%
15% -51.2% 8% -26.7%
20% -56.0% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage697d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $426 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $339 −$3 -1%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 19 $116 −$37 -32%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 18 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $247 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $493 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $46 +$29 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10? May 11 $22 +$13 +59%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Jan 28 $277 $0 -0%
MetaMask airdrop by September 30? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris give a live interview before debate? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Kamala positive favorability by Sunday? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will a candidate from another party win Vermont US Senate Election? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $1,860 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader? Oct 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 16 $0 +$1 +200%
Will Belichick head coach another team in the 2024-25 NFL season? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belichick head coach the Chargers in the 2024-25 NFL season? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro announce presidential run before DNC? Sep 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton announce presidential run before DNC? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Freya Colbert (GBR) win Gold in Women's 400m Individual Medley? Aug 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Danas Rapsys (LTU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? Aug 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Luke Hobson (USA) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? Aug 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mark Cuban be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 30 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 30 $1,298 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting? Jul 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Jul 30 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $651 −$1 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Jul 30 $652 −$1 -0%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Jul 30 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will J. B. Pritzker be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 29 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $426 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $0 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $426 5h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 41¢ $68 6d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 6d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $116 6d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 7d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 7d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $32 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $134 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $169 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $169 10d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $170 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 37d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 37d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 38d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $8 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $494 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $133 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $66 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $528 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $529 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records