Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fbe…e798 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-7%) realized −$191 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$108
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$213
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 43 -18.9% -26.7% 35% 33% -17.6%
all 43 -18.9% -26.7% 35% 33% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 33% -17.6%
10% -33.7% 30% -25.5%
15% -40.1% 30% -32.7%
20% -46.0% 30% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$57 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage64d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 5¢ 6¢ $31 $34 +$2 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 13¢ 14¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $72 −$68 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $43 −$40 -94%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) May 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 11 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 11 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 06 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 06 $86 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 06 $159 +$111 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 06 $98 +$62 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 06 $106 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 06 $163 +$133 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 06 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 06 $46 +$49 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 06 $100 +$84 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 06 $65 +$135 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 06 $91 +$109 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 06 $79 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 06 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 05 $32 +$64 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 05 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 05 $39 +$59 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 05 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 05 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 03 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 03 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 14 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 14 $169 −$162 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 14 $156 +$404 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $92 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 13 $17 +$58 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $36 +$40 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $36 +$54 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 13¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $43 2d
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié 43¢ $0 35d
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié 43¢ $12 35d
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.69 · official $41.84 · 306 history records