Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4fbd…64b2 sports 38 markets active 7h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+9%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$12
other 43% −$1
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 41% +2.9%
≤30d 32 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 41% +2.9%
≤90d 32 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 41% +2.9%
all 32 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 41% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 41% +2.9%
10% -11.7% 41% -7.0%
15% -20.3% 38% -16.0%
20% -28.1% 34% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +262%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $2 +$4 +172%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +106%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1 19h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $5 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 36¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 71¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 71¢ $2 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 28¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $0 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.38 · official $9.38 (match) · 70 history records