Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fbc…118d crypto 273 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$420 (+3%) realized +$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%138W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$127
14 days−$546
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$284
sports 5% +$448
other 1% −$137
weather 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 46% -11.9%
≤30d 273 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 48% -9.6%
≤90d 273 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 48% -9.6%
all 273 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 48% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 48% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 44% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 37% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 30% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$41 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses138 / 135
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 273
History coverage16d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $122 +$211 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$68 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $128 +$80 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$86 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$9 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$30 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $172 +$142 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $204 +$63 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $115 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $609 −$345 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $230 −$86 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $409 +$210 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$85 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $153 −$71 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $204 −$29 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$63 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $65 +$39 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $152 +$38 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $333 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $122 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 778 history records