Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

4F 0x4fbb…cc4d world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$3 (-17%) realized +$2 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+15.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+91.9%	+73.6%	100%	100%	+70.8%
≤30d	2	+91.9%	+73.6%	100%	100%	+70.8%
≤90d	3	+27.9%	+15.7%	67%	67%	+10.0%
all	3	+27.9%	+15.7%	67%	67%	+10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.7%	67%	+10.0%
10%	+4.7%	67%	-0.6%
15%	-5.4%	67%	-10.2%
20%	-14.7%	67%	-19.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage82d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	56¢	56¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	58¢	40¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	55¢	6¢	$3	$0	−$2 (-90%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	52¢	3¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-95%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Jun 12	$2	+$2	+108%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 12	$3	+$2	+75%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Mar 26	$3	−$3	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	56¢	$3	1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	BUY Yes	55¢	$3	13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	52¢	$1	21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	BUY No	58¢	$3	28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY No	47¢	$2	35d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY No	57¢	$3	61d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY No	53¢	$3	82d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.10 · official $5.10 (match) · 9 history records