Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fba…fb15
crypto · 809 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$52 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$93 · open −$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses591 / 217
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)808 / 809
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day663.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 808 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$428
7 days+$93
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 80¢ 20¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$12 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$8 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$7 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$8 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$11 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$2 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$14 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$6 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% +$89
other 10% −$257
sports 9% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 36m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 45¢ $107 44m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 45¢ $18 44m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 45¢ $5 44m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 45¢ $24 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 46m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $102 54m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 80¢ $50 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 808 -4.7% -13.7% 73% 56% -9.0%
≤30d 808 -4.7% -13.7% 73% 56% -9.0%
≤90d 808 -4.7% -13.7% 73% 56% -9.0%
all 808 -4.7% -13.7% 73% 56% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover663.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 56% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 24% -17.7%
15% -29.5% 7% -25.6%
20% -36.4% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.33 · official $12.33 (match) · 3500 history records