Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fb9…7ae9 world 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$288 (-38%) realized −$282 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$198
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$181
sports 32% +$39
other 18% −$137
crypto 18% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 +49.8% +35.6% 25% 25% -75.4%
all 13 +14.8% +3.9% 23% 23% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 23% -49.6%
10% -6.1% 15% -54.4%
15% -15.2% 15% -58.8%
20% -23.5% 15% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$51 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$282
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage114d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $5 +$41 +818%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$2 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $18 −$6 -36%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $20 −$18 -90%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $100 −$97 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $99 +$179 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.44 · official $94.44 (match) · 27 history records