Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4fb8…7188 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 36% −$15
sports 7% −$47
tech 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -2.5% -11.8% 6% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage125d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $516 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $891 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $193 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 10 $19 $0 +1%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $434 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $162 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $447 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $445 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $176 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 29 $260 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $207 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $237 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $203 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $426 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $725 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $43 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 20d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $266 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $266 23d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $225 23d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $225 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $256 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $256 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $268 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $268 25d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $206 25d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $206 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 411 history records