Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fb2…2be9 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-39%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -51.7%
≤30d 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -51.7%
≤90d 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -51.7%
all 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -51.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 25% -51.7%
10% -45.7% 25% -56.3%
15% -51.0% 25% -60.5%
20% -55.8% 25% -64.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$54 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $31 11h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 37¢ $41 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $30 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.70 · official $29.70 (match) · 8 history records