Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fb1…0f19 crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+3%) realized +$210 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate78%93W / 27L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$120
finance 0% −$13
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 59% -8.1%
≤30d 120 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 59% -8.1%
≤90d 120 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 59% -8.1%
all 120 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 59% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 59% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 33% -16.9%
15% -27.6% 18% -24.9%
20% -34.7% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$40 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$210
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses93 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage4d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 63¢ 74¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $128 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $227 +$31 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $253 +$44 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $126 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$85 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $152 +$27 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $126 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$55 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $118 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $137 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.81 · official $28.31 · 283 history records