Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fb1…0787 other 398 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$749 (-1%) realized −$772 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate77%296W / 87L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$10
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$156
sports 25% −$495
world 13% −$418
politics 9% −$161
weather 6% +$49
finance 4% −$118
crypto 4% −$71
tech 3% +$84
culture 0% +$11
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 36 -7.3% -16.1% 78% 8% -11.1%
≤90d 252 -1.6% -11.0% 80% 11% -9.0%
all 383 -2.5% -11.7% 77% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 15% -10.2%
10% -20.2% 8% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 6% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$67 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$3,289
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses296 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions15
Markets (closed)383 / 398
History coverage590d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $870 $876 +$6 (+1%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $720 $700 −$20 (-3%)
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch No 96¢ 93¢ $555 $539 −$17 (-3%)
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 18¢ 20¢ $242 $256 +$15 (+6%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 54¢ 66¢ $173 $214 +$42 (+24%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 92¢ 92¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will José Ignacio García be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 100¢ 98¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch No 96¢ 93¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 68¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Ethereal FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereal FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 79¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $400 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $600 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 08 $306 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 06 $126 −$65 -51%
Will VOX (VOX) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Ele Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Andalusi Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $700 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $400 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $683 −$81 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $80 +$9 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $156 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? May 31 $2,365 +$66 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner May 25 $40 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 25 $244 −$55 -23%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 25 $204 −$30 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $238 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Rey (BO3) - MPL May 23 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $298 +$6 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $580 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 22 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 22 $14 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 22 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage May 22 $58 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner May 22 $70 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 22 $3 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch SELL No 95¢ $1,041 19m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch SELL No 93¢ $214 23m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $35 28m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $18 28m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 92¢ $9 28m
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $20 30m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $180 30m
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch BUY No 95¢ $5 30m
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $14 30m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 93¢ $9 38m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 93¢ $9 39m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 93¢ $9 47m
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $5 49m
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch BUY No 90¢ $9 49m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 93¢ $5 49m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 93¢ $5 49m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 92¢ $15 55m
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 97¢ $601 1h
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 97¢ $340 1h
Laso Finance FDV above $30M one day after launch BUY No 97¢ $503 1h
Laso Finance FDV above $50M one day after launch BUY No 97¢ $68 1h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 92¢ $27 1h
Ethereal FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $26 2h
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 3h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $33 3h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes $1 3h
Ethereal FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $19 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,289.03 · official $3,289.39 (match) · 2217 history records