Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fac…20ce
crypto · 1123 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$502 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$503 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$503
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses524 / 840
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1364 / 1123
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day141.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 1364 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$692
7 days−$723
14 days−$672
30 days−$503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 30¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -103%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$3 -145%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -103%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$3 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -101%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% −$10
sports 35% +$176
other 8% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $0 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 534 -55.4% -59.6% 25% 22% -60.8%
≤30d 1364 -22.1% -29.5% 38% 34% -19.7%
≤90d 1364 -22.1% -29.5% 38% 34% -19.7%
all 1364 -22.1% -29.5% 38% 34% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover141.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 34% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 26% -27.4%
15% -42.4% 20% -34.4%
20% -48.1% 15% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.26 · official $3.26 (match) · 3500 history records