Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fab…1722 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$2
other 12% −$1
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.7% -22.0% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -5.7% -14.7% 56% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -5.7% -14.7% 56% 0% -9.1%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage454d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $40 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $9 −$2 -17%
Will 'Mononoke The Movie: The Phantom in the Rain' win Crunchyroll's F May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $41 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $4 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $44 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $42 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $16 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $19 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $11 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $30 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.64 · official $40.64 (match) · 92 history records