Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fa9…ca71 crypto 499 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate78%390W / 109L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days+$26
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$9
other 32% +$19
sports 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -11.7% -20.1% 72% 38% -13.9%
≤30d 499 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 41% -9.1%
≤90d 499 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 41% -9.1%
all 499 -3.0% -12.3% 78% 41% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 41% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 23% -17.8%
15% -28.3% 13% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses390 / 109
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)499 / 499
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 499 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1330 history records